Seizing Mexico’s Green Industrial Opportunities in the Emerging Geopolitical Landscape
Mexico’s role in a world of uncertainty
MAXIMILIANO VÉJARES, Senior Research Associate, Johns Hopkins University
RENATO H. DE GASPI, Senior Research Associate, Johns Hopkins University
TIM SAHAY, Research Scientist, Johns Hopkins University
CATHY WANG, Researcher, Johns Hopkins University
JONAS GOLDMAN, Senior Research Associate
BENTLEY ALLAN, Associate Professor, Johns Hopkins University
April 28, 2025
Executive Summary
The energy transition creates both opportunities and challenges for developing nations, and Mexico is well-positioned to succeed thanks to its substantial natural resources, robust industrial base, and strategic location.
Building on these three bases, Mexico can make substantial contributions to the global green economy across several key sectors: renewable energy (particularly geothermal, wind, and solar), electric vehicles and batteries, metals and critical minerals, and HVAC equipment.
“At the same time, Mexico must navigate some formidable challenges, including an evolving geopolitical landscape and the forthcoming United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) renegotiation process, while advancing ambitious new industrial policies, with outcomes that remain to be seen.”
In a departure from Mexico’s firm-led and sub-national industrial policy of recent decades, the Mexican government is now taking a stronger hand, recently introducing "Plan México," a federal developmental initiative with targeted provisions designed to leverage the country's advantages.
This geopolitical brief examines Mexico's industrial base, natural resource potential, and emerging industrial policy frameworks. Building
on this analysis, we provide recommendations encompassing microtargeted interventions to enhance domestic value creation, clear
conditionalities to align private investment with national objectives, coordinated supply-side and demand-side policies, and sector-specific human capital development strategies.
